Hello,
I'm back from another visit to Lindbergh’s main distribution hub in Siziano. Where the magic happens. The time spent with management was again insightful—especially on the HVAC front, which is the factor that will make or break the thesis from here.
Although I’m biased because I have a large position in $LDB.MI and am close to the management, I think there probably weren’t many times when the risk-reward looked better. They’ve shown that the HVAC acquisitions were both prudent and attractively financed, and the full impact will finally be visible in the 2025 numbers. The core business (network + waste) should keep throwing off cash and delivering solid organic growth, while the sale of the French unit has materially de-risked the story.
So if the price stays the same by the end of the year, I think the stock will be trading at the lowest multiple it has ever traded—despite being much higher than when I first got involved.
Here are the most important points to understand about where the business is heading, with a lot of emphasis on HVAC operations post-acquisition(s).
I think there’s nuance here you won’t get from the filings or a quick look at the investor presentation. The things that are hard to pick up unless you’ve spent time on-site or had long strategy discussions with management. Which is exactly why I went.