Half-Time Lead
portfolio update
With the first half of 2026 behind us, it’s time for another portfolio update.
Despite once again failing to recognize big themes like precious metals and oil early in the year, or seeking any AI/data center exposure, the stock picking I did throughout 2025 has rewarded me handsomely so far in 2026, with my portfolio up 65.8% YTD.
That makes this the best six-month stretch I’ve ever had and brings my cumulative return since I started sharing stock analysis and every buy/sell decision on Substack 3.5 years ago to 309%, or a 49% CAGR.
Returns are shown pre-tax and in EUR, and I don’t think it’s realistic to expect this to be repeated anytime soon.
A lot has changed since my last portfolio update in April. I initiated three new positions, exited two, added to four existing holdings, and moved cash from 7% to 0%. As a result, this article also serves as a snapshot of exactly how I’m positioned heading into the second half of 2026.
At quarter-end, the portfolio consisted of 13 holdings. The top three positions accounted for 59% of capital, while the top five made up 73%. Portfolio beta increased from 0.62 at the end of Q1 to 0.95 at the end of Q2, largely because my largest position carries a beta of 1.79. The remaining 12 holdings, however, all have a beta below 1.
Performance has also become more concentrated. After appreciating more than 300% YTD, $EVC overtook $SOFW.TA as the biggest contributor to performance this year. Both positions were initiated in the spring of 2025, while my position in $3901.T, initiated earlier this year, has been the main detractor.
But that’s enough on performance and positioning. What matters more are the fundamental and thesis developments: what has changed, how it affects the risk-reward, and where my conviction stands today.
As usual, I’ll go from the smallest to the largest position.